Frequently Asked Questions

Answers to the most common questions from clients and users.

I can’t use probabilistic values in my business yet, what should I do?

No problem. You can use the median (P50) of our probabilistic forecast as a single deterministic value. This gives you a best estimate that is directly comparable to traditional deterministic forecasts, while still allowing you to explore the full range of quantiles whenever you are ready.

Can I do a historical analysis with your data?

Yes. We offer access to historical forecast data so you can backtest and evaluate accuracy against your own measurements or benchmark against other providers. Please contact us to discuss the available time range and data format.

Why is a solar nowcast important?

Solar generation can drop significantly within minutes when clouds pass over. Traditional weather models update too infrequently to capture these rapid changes, leaving traders and asset managers exposed to imbalance costs. A nowcast — covering the 0–6 hour window ahead — uses real-time satellite data to track cloud movement as it happens, giving you the lead time to adjust intraday positions before deviations hit your portfolio.

What are ensembles and why do they matter?

An ensemble forecast runs multiple models or model variations simultaneously, each capturing different possible outcomes. Instead of relying on a single prediction, you get a range of scenarios that better reflects real-world uncertainty. We are currently developing an ensemble-based model that will combine several forecasting approaches into one integrated output. This will further improve reliability, especially in volatile weather conditions where any single model is likely to underperform.

Did you compare it with other data sources like HARMONIE and ICON?

Yes. We continuously benchmark Helio against established numerical weather prediction models such as HARMONIE and ICON. Traditional NWP models are limited by their update cycles and spatial resolution, making them too slow to capture rapid cloud movements that drive short-term irradiance changes. Helio combines high-frequency satellite observations with advanced modeling to deliver more accurate forecasts on short-term horizons (up to 6 hours ahead). Feel free to contact us if you would like to see detailed comparison results.